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PITBULL INVESTOR© Online since 1993
MARKET UPDATE & COMMENTARY
For Tomorrow 10/13/2003 by Henry Ford
Updated by 6PM PST. If not today's update hit RELOAD/REFRESH or quit browser to clear cache...especially with Internet Explorer
IF YOU ARE NOT SEEING THE CURRENT REPORT
VISIT http://www.pitbullinvestor.com

I added three trading tools today on MarketWatch.  The first three are a Momentum Price Prediction Calculator, a Fibonacci Support and Resistance Calculator and a Daily Pivot Price Calculator.  Eventually I hope to have about a dozen specialized tools for traders. These will be available to all RoundTable and Premium subscribers throughout the life of their subscriptions...(try these tools now!)
NEW TRADER'S CALCULATORS! (more on the way..TIME CYCLE & PROFITCALC are next!)


HTTP://www.stocktables.com/calcs/momentum.html
HTTP://www.stocktables.com/calcs/pivots.htm
HTTP://www.stocktables.com/calcs/fibonacci.html

SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE  

The last two day's trading saw back to back bearish candlesticks formed. On Thursday the DOW formed a "Shooting Star" candlestick pattern:

HTTP://WWW.STOCKTABLES.COM/IMAGES/101003dow2.GIF
Stockcharts calls this a classic top noting the long-legged doji and regular doji that followed on the next day, (Friday). I like to think of doji as a yellow traffic light, which means you should proceed with caution. Another important thing to note here is that shooting star candles (that mark tops) like to be retested, especially if they come on increased volume. It's important to understand this in your overall trade setup.

Doji: The doji is a reversal signal and possibly the most important candle you can watch for. The lack of a real body means the bulls and bears are fighting and the balance of powers may be shifting, thus signaling a change in the short-term trend.

The confirmation for both of these CandleStick patterns would be a close below the close of Thursday and a failure to exceed Friday's high...We will have to wait for that.
Until we break decisively out or down we will just bide our time...My bets are still on the downside in the short term.


As you can see from the Calendar below, we have nothing in the way of economic reports until Wednesday, so any market moving news will have to come from individual stocks.

Nothing I have seen so far has changed our outlook for a drop to the 950-960 region for the SP500 and 8800 to 9000 area for the DOW before we are set for our end of the year rally.

HTTP://WWW.STOCKTABLES.COM/IMAGES/cal.GIF
Once the decline is finished, whenever it occurs, I think we will be in for the longest and largest advance we have seen to date, certainly in the last 3 years, and this advance will last well into 2004.

Everything we are doing now is in preparation for that market move. Between now and then, do as the "big boys do" and accumulate on weakness as prices decline.

Will be back around 9AM tomorrow morning on MarketWatch LIVE to give you my assessment of the pre-market news and impact on the open.


HTTP://WWW.STOCKTABLES.COM/IMAGES/nyfinal.GIF HTTP://WWW.STOCKTABLES.COM/IMAGES/ndfinal.GIF
This is not the time to become overanxious...you just have to wait out the markets and the news that drives them.

PROXYTRADER UPDATE... The updated report with the new tables is located at http://www.investshare.com/services/proxy/proxyupdate.asp


Those who followed the MarketWatch lists I generated in March and April have seen an average gain of over 20% in those positions without even considering option trades.

We believe we are about to go into a retracement period which will give another opportunity to pick up a new list of stocks I have published on Marketwatch which have the same gain potential over the next quarter.

If you subscribe to or extend your current service, we will sign you up at the current low discount rate.

If you decide to take us up on the special discount for the RoundTable we will take any existing service that you have and pro-rate the remaining time against the subscription. You can still quit at any time for a pro-rated refund.

To renew please call 800-491-9951 M-F 8:30-5PM PST or go to http://www.pitbullinvestor.com/stocksystems/product_info.php/cPath/2/products_id/41

If you have liked what you have seen so far, it is only going to get better as we add more comprehensive market coverage and services. Don't miss this opportunity to pick up another year ( or save ANOTHER $100 if you extend for 2 years--call us!)...this offer will not last long. (cannot be combined with other offers)

  If you would like to read along just drop me a line and I'll be happy to give you access...whford@gmail.com


CHART SCHOOL ON LINE:
CLASSIC CHART PATTERNS -A TUTORIAL-OVERVIEW
We will be reviewing 46 classic chart patterns in this little learning series. For each chart pattern we observe we will look at the following:
1. Identification
2. Failure Rate
3.Average Rise or Decline
We will also tackle the basics of Fibonacci projections and retracements which allow us to establish target support and resistance as well as timeline projections.


If you are a RoundTable member check the MarketWatch page before the open when I will give my analysis for the day tomorrow about 9:15 EST...

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OVERSEAS
: ALL MARKETS KEYING ON US INDICES NOW.
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PROXYTRADER SIGNALS

These signals are only updated on weekends since they are derived from the Traders Commitments reports published every Friday afternoon, holidays excepted.
CURRENT SIGNALS:

SEE THE 'SMARTMONEY" PROXYTRADER SIGNALS PAGE

Check signals page for Bear and Bull fund stats.

WE NOW HAVE A DEDICATED SIGNALS UPDATE PAGE WITH COT CHARTS, SIGNAL AND FUND UPDATES AS WELL AS DIRECT LINKS TO THE GOVERNMENT CFTC FILES


FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FREE SERVICE TO SUBSCRIBERS CLICK HERE
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***INDICATORS***
(UPDATED DAILY only for subscribers) The PCI now includes major volatile market sectors. These numbers are updated overnight.
Read on below for the rest of the numbers..... 
(updated every two hours on MARKETWATCH LIVE!)


**VOLATILITY INDEX**One of the indicators I have talked about is the VIX. This is another indicator from CBOE whose full name is Market Volatility Index. This index, while it has no nice fixed number, (like >0 = oversold;<0 =overbought), can be best evaluated with the use of simple 20 period Bollinger bands. When the VIX rises to meet or exceed the 20 day upper band, you can generally count on a rally within the next two days....conversely, when the VIX drops near or through the lower band, you can expect the market to reverse and fail within the next two days....It doesn't ALWAYS work that way, but when used in conjunction with some other simple indicators can give you a pretty good idea of market direction near term.
VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) ..see chart

MONEYFLOW 
Once again, this very useful indicator when tracked over time tells you whether it is buying or selling that is dominating irrespective of what price may be telling you. It is very effective in identifying "stealth" buying and selling.
Formula:
If the last tick is an up tick (i.e., if P(n) > P(n-1) ), then
F(n) = F(n-1) + ( P(n) * V(n) )
If the last tick is a down tick (i.e., if P(n) < P(n-1) ), then
F(n) = F(n-1) - ( P(n) * V(n) )
If the last tick is no change, then
F(n) = F(n-1)
Where:
F = Money Flow
P = Price
V = Volume


CBOE Put/Call Index:
A measure of the Public attitude, Bullish, neutral or Bearish, (a contrary indicator)
Going above .85 puts us into a ready to rally mode. Going below .55 indicates a selloff due.
OEX Put/Call Index
A measure of Public Attitude as reflected by SP100 options. Over 1 leads to near term rallies
A crossing below 1 indicates an increasing chance for a short term pullback.
McCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX:
This is a slow to turn indicator because of the moving averages used to compute it. Dropping indicates weakness with numbers below the zero line negative for the market. Conversely a crossing of the zero line in a positive direction leads to positive Markets.
NEW!!! MORE DATA
WANT TO WATCH THE MARKET REALTIME ALL DAY?....
Click Here-Updated automatically every 60 seconds

You can now watch overseas markets on a real time basis before the market open so that traders can watch for these effects at a new 60 second updated Overseas Charts Page

A new commodities update page is also available from our sister site HERE.


2nd TIMING SECTION available. Two sections are available HERE . This little series will be directed at an understanding of my approach to timing stocks, industries, sectors or whole markets. The basics are all pretty much the same.
LINK TO STOCKTABLES questions or comments? E-mail us at pbinvestor@gmail.com

OPTIONS SERVICE FREE TO OUR PREMIUM STOCK SUBSCRIBERS
A new version of OptionMizerII is available for download as of August 1.  The hardest part of options trading is determining which option is ideal for your style of trading. Normal Black-Scholes analysis does not work for these selections and is far too complicated for the average investor. We now have an options engine which allows us to evaluate for our criteria and give you the best single option to trade the next day. As an example Microsoft, (MSFT), has over 340 options to choose from. With our evaluator we sort through that minefield and give you one option that is the BEST and usually a few that are OK. 


SELECTED CHARTS TODAY:(UPDATED LATE EVENING).
VIX chart (Volatility Index)
DJIA chart (DOW Industrial Index)
SPX chart (SP500 Index)
NDX chart (NASDAQ 100 Index)
NYA chart (NYSE Index)


You must have a java enabled browser and if you are operating behind a firewall, such as many company internet accounts do, you may not be able to get the service if they have blocked our communications ports.

We have included examples available from the links page and I am doing analysis of two more system approaches we have been following and will release them shortly.. Please keep the feedback up on your successes as well...we have really been pleased with your responses and encouragement.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFO ON PCI http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/pcisignals.html



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